Operational Excellence: a Key Driver for Regional Growth

Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly deemed a debt consolidation year, in which diversification-led growth becomes more deeply embedded in the region's financial model, minimizing dependence on hydrocarbons and increasing strength to external shocks. Projections from major institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC development profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued non-oil growth, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent development in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth predicted to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift towards more positive overall conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects global development easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would place the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a relatively high-growth pocketprovided that local danger conditions stay contained and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center show that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has continued to rise as federal governments broaden financial investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity throughout the GCC is forecasted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing financial investment in technology and AI-related infrastructure.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Key Tips for Operational Excellence in the GCC

Public-sector investment and reform remain central to sustaining this pattern. Policy measures aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, alleviating foreign ownership rules, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil expansion and minimize the region's exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer control the growth outlook, oil incomes are expected to play an encouraging role in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude prices to fall listed below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, restricting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. However, oil supply is anticipated to rise once again in the second half of the year, with a full loosening up of staying production caps likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions throughout the GCC remain broadly supportive of development. Inflation is expected to stay low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the area in 2026. Steady rates are assisting preserve real home incomes and underpin customer spending, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.